Sentinel personal significance candidate: synthetic, not real personal experience
Seed: 20261028 Observations: 24000 burn-in (no parameter fitting): 8000 validation: 6000 untouched test: 10000
Hidden preference changes: 376 constraint rate: 0.35525 action missing rate: 0.160625
The hidden preference is available ONLY to the synthetic evaluator.
Evidence model assumes visible constraint status, free-action reliability .77,
statement reliability .92, correction reliability .985 and hazard .018.
These are human-designed simulation assumptions, NOT learned values.

VALIDATION (bits of log loss lower is better)
model                             logloss   accuracy   coverage90  error|conf90 switch-delay
last_action                        1.1269     0.5508       0.0000           nan         8.14
all_actions_window                 0.9012     0.6857       0.0000           nan        42.40
last_statement                     0.7739     0.8145       1.0000        0.1855        16.77
context_window                     0.5472     0.8667       0.1020        0.0229        25.98
context_bayes                      0.3078     0.9248       0.7067        0.0255         8.71
context_bayes_no_corrections       0.3375     0.9162       0.6602        0.0275         8.87
Tested hidden preference switches: 84

TEST (bits of log loss lower is better)
model                             logloss   accuracy   coverage90  error|conf90 switch-delay
last_action                        1.1318     0.5478       0.0000           nan         6.26
all_actions_window                 0.9379     0.6179       0.0000           nan        43.97
last_statement                     0.6668     0.8449       1.0000        0.1551        15.35
context_window                     0.5473     0.8669       0.0864        0.0093        24.75
context_bayes                      0.3128     0.9230       0.7005        0.0250         8.77
context_bayes_no_corrections       0.3436     0.9130       0.6605        0.0263         9.78
Tested hidden preference switches: 153

TEST ROWS WITHOUT NEW EXPLICIT STATEMENT/CORRECTION: 9420
context_window                 logloss=0.5537 accuracy=0.8645 coverage90=0.0841
context_bayes                  logloss=0.3255 accuracy=0.9194 coverage90=0.6868
context_bayes_no_corrections   logloss=0.3496 accuracy=0.9111 coverage90=0.6524

All scoring is on simulator labels, not independently assessed human priorities.
This does not establish real-world preference discovery, causal importance, or consent.

SENSITIVITY CHECKS on untouched test
shuffled constraint status     logloss=0.8613 accuracy=0.7315 coverage90=0.4119
very sticky old preference     logloss=0.4848 accuracy=0.8985 coverage90=0.8998
overreacts to changes          logloss=0.4777 accuracy=0.8768 coverage90=0.2942
A correction rejecting an action must control permissions independently of these predictions.